I haven't written here for over two months. Apologies. I've been thinking a lot, talking to people, and reading.
This essay by Clay Shirky is a terrific analysis of why complex societies collapse – do read it. He explains that it is the very complexity of a society, or empire, or indeed industry that prevents it from being able to adapt to a changed environment which in turn leads to complete collapse.
I've been pondering this in the context of the music industry.
Of course, there is no such thing as the music industry per se, as neatly explained by Steve Redmond here. Nor is there any such thing as the record industry – the many independent labels and the four majors each run their own businesses and compete with one another.
However, this is the sector currently facing the most dramatic change. The historic market of selling music on plastic discs is arguably in terminal decline. And the structures of many of these companies are undoubtedly over-complex.
Maybe we should accept that some are simply unable to change and will perhaps disappear. But is this such a scary thought?
Shirky ends:
"There is one compensating advantage for the people who escape the old system: when the ecosystem stops rewarding complexity, it is the people who figure out how to work simply in the present, rather than the people who mastered the complexities of the past, who get to say what happens in the future."
Selling records aside, how might you structure a music company rather than a record label today? Starting from scratch, without the baggage of the industry of the past, are current complexities necessary? I don't think so.
Simply build businesses around amazing artists making amazing music.
What will the music industry as a whole look like in 5 years, or in 10 years? I'm not sure. But the opportunity to have a hand creating the future is extremely exciting.
As a total aside – I'm reading this brilliant book by Seth Godin. Massively inspirational and highly recommended.
